Looks like Peter Schiff nailed the current crisis first and best. And, to his credit, he got out in public saying it over and over again, despite harsh skepticism sent his way and looks like everyone needs to respect to his bold predictions.
Past
Current and Future
Saturday, November 15, 2008
Thursday, November 13, 2008
Fed Funds, ReCall Great Depression.
FED Funds
Fed funds are raising at alarm rate which will lead us to massive or hyper inflation once economy gets to normal with supply demand chain going on. Its pause for moment right now as every body is trying to sell at current markets or when market rallies.
I see inflationary in these in coming years:
1.Commodities.
2.Metas.
3. Utilities.
4. Govt taxes (though Obama govt doesn't raise taxes for income over 250k we have to pay inflationary taxes from our pocket which will pinch us during this deflationary period with decreasing incomes).
Are we looking fed interest rate to 0% any time in US history ? hope we might get a chance to witness that too along with the Great Depression.
Great Depression 2.0
Ladies and Gentlemen:
This is your Captain Ben Bernanke (Alice Helicopter Ben) speaking along with my co-pilot Hank Paulson. Welcome aboard to bailout-out national flight, flight number 1929, non-stop service from recession ville to Depression ville. After reaching a cruising altitude of 5.25 %, we’ll steadily drop down to 1.0 % and hold it there for a long time before we hit ground zero or crash land at Depression ville.
For your safety, please bundle-up Treasury Bills and stay in dollar.Federal law also prohibits any speculating in commodities or tampering with the metals(gold silver etc) during this entire flight as we might use our $700 TARP to take action. Our in-flight entertainment will feature two films, “Age of Turbulence,” starring Greenspan as Hero, and “Death of Dollar,” starting Bush and his fellow Congressmen.
In any unlikely event we loose cabin pressure, there will be a ten dollar surcharge to use the Oxygen mask. After reaching the cruising altitude, we will be serving you complimentary beverages and chips as a part of our stimulus package. If there is anything we can do to reduce your inflationary pain, please do not hesitate to contact one of our flight attendants to receive a low CPI dose.
Thank you for choosing govt aided intervene flight for your final destination, sit back and relax, And we will let you know if there will be any turbulence in markets or crash landing, hope everybody rest in peace with your 401k's, stocks, bonds, assets.... blah blah.
Over and out.
Fed funds are raising at alarm rate which will lead us to massive or hyper inflation once economy gets to normal with supply demand chain going on. Its pause for moment right now as every body is trying to sell at current markets or when market rallies.
I see inflationary in these in coming years:
1.Commodities.
2.Metas.
3. Utilities.
4. Govt taxes (though Obama govt doesn't raise taxes for income over 250k we have to pay inflationary taxes from our pocket which will pinch us during this deflationary period with decreasing incomes).
Are we looking fed interest rate to 0% any time in US history ? hope we might get a chance to witness that too along with the Great Depression.
Great Depression 2.0
Ladies and Gentlemen:
This is your Captain Ben Bernanke (Alice Helicopter Ben) speaking along with my co-pilot Hank Paulson. Welcome aboard to bailout-out national flight, flight number 1929, non-stop service from recession ville to Depression ville. After reaching a cruising altitude of 5.25 %, we’ll steadily drop down to 1.0 % and hold it there for a long time before we hit ground zero or crash land at Depression ville.
For your safety, please bundle-up Treasury Bills and stay in dollar.Federal law also prohibits any speculating in commodities or tampering with the metals(gold silver etc) during this entire flight as we might use our $700 TARP to take action. Our in-flight entertainment will feature two films, “Age of Turbulence,” starring Greenspan as Hero, and “Death of Dollar,” starting Bush and his fellow Congressmen.
In any unlikely event we loose cabin pressure, there will be a ten dollar surcharge to use the Oxygen mask. After reaching the cruising altitude, we will be serving you complimentary beverages and chips as a part of our stimulus package. If there is anything we can do to reduce your inflationary pain, please do not hesitate to contact one of our flight attendants to receive a low CPI dose.
Thank you for choosing govt aided intervene flight for your final destination, sit back and relax, And we will let you know if there will be any turbulence in markets or crash landing, hope everybody rest in peace with your 401k's, stocks, bonds, assets.... blah blah.
Over and out.
Wednesday, November 12, 2008
Initial Relief Rally, Now Defensive Play
Current markets looks to me is more of a defensive play as its losing its steam for upside, Initially we had rally after the big drop but that was just relief rally and market tape looks harder and harder to read. Now lets take a look at major indices with possible scenarios for the markets:
Standard and Poor's 500:
1.Range bound (1050-850)
2.Test lows around 850's.
3. Breaking 840's will be huge downward movement for another leg down which will take this economy to depression levels which i don't see for now, And it might happen in coming Q's depending on economy with levels around 650's)
and i'm seeing similar kinda of action with other two indices.
NASDAQ Composite
1.Range bound (1900-1450, resistance around 9500 and gap created around 1900 levels and that needs to fill before we move for any upside)
2.Test lows around 1500.
3. Breaking 1450 will be huge downward movement.)
Dow Jones Industrial Average:
1.Range bound (Lower 8k to mid 9k, resistance around 9500 and gap created around 10k needs to fill before we move for any upside)
2.Test lows around 7800-8100 and bounce with decent buyers.
3. Breaking 7800 will be huge downward movement for another 1000 points.)
In my next blog i will try to discuss about the dollar, oil, gold and also vix indices as there is more and more fear factor in the markets and the levels are being at higher bands all the time during entire crisis which shows that most the volumes we are seeing is not just buy and hold but they are either swing or day trading.
Standard and Poor's 500:
1.Range bound (1050-850)
2.Test lows around 850's.
3. Breaking 840's will be huge downward movement for another leg down which will take this economy to depression levels which i don't see for now, And it might happen in coming Q's depending on economy with levels around 650's)
and i'm seeing similar kinda of action with other two indices.
NASDAQ Composite
1.Range bound (1900-1450, resistance around 9500 and gap created around 1900 levels and that needs to fill before we move for any upside)
2.Test lows around 1500.
3. Breaking 1450 will be huge downward movement.)
Dow Jones Industrial Average:
1.Range bound (Lower 8k to mid 9k, resistance around 9500 and gap created around 10k needs to fill before we move for any upside)
2.Test lows around 7800-8100 and bounce with decent buyers.
3. Breaking 7800 will be huge downward movement for another 1000 points.)
In my next blog i will try to discuss about the dollar, oil, gold and also vix indices as there is more and more fear factor in the markets and the levels are being at higher bands all the time during entire crisis which shows that most the volumes we are seeing is not just buy and hold but they are either swing or day trading.
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