Saturday, August 22, 2009

Obama to raise 10-year deficit to $9 trillion




WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The Obama administration will raise its 10-year budget deficit projection to approximately $9 trillion from $7.108 trillion in a report next week, a senior administration official told Reuters on Friday.

The higher deficit figure, based on updated economic data, brings the White House budget office into line with outside estimates and gives further fuel to President Barack Obama's opponents, who say his spending plans are too expensive in light of budget shortfalls.

The White House took heat for sticking with its $7.108 trillion forecast earlier this year after the Congressional Budget Office forecast that deficits between 2010 and 2019 would total $9.1 trillion.Full Story

Wednesday, August 19, 2009

Volatility On The Rocks !!!!


We have volatility index finally got out of the decending wedge which is bullish formation on the index which in turn is bearish for the equity markets.

We have longer and short term charts here :

The longer term below clearly shows that breaking of cup and handle which happen when lehman failure back in march had triggered Oct seller off on markets and now its cooled off after that massive move and came to near support for another move up



(click for sharper view)

Here is another shorter term chart shows that we are decending wedge pattern emerged and breaking out and test the wedge is clear sign that it wants to go higher which means markets will go triple digit up and down days coming, And historically Sept-Oct we have massive sell offs months.So are we expecting the same here.



(Click for sharper view)

Tuesday, August 11, 2009

Moving To India




Moving for good to India. So I won't be able to post much for next few days starting from today so bear with me. Here's my personal contact info:sureshgajjela@gmail.com and you can always ping me at the bottom of the blog spot through chat section to pass on any info/messages.

Good Luck.

Regards
Suresh

Dow 1929-1933 Vs Current Market

Dow Jones 1929-1933:


Peak was 350+ point and trough was 41+ odd points.

Dow Jones 1929




Dow took a nose dive from 350 odd points to 190 point in span of 100 days and rallied almost 50% retrace to 300 over 6 months before making multiple false bottom to attempt to backup. Finally landed with 41 in 1933 and this took almost 4 years to happen.

Dow Jones 2007- Current




Does the current market looks like 1929 markets after having rallied almost 50% on indices for almost 6 months now? And will it make multiple false bottoms coming? Are we expecting declines coming all the way till 2012?

Note:Click all the images for sharper view

Friday, August 7, 2009

Half Of The Home Owners Equity Wipe Off


NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- Nearly half the nation's mortgage borrowers will soon owe more on their mortgages than their homes are worth, according to a new report.

A Deutsche Bank analysis of the battered housing and mortgage markets estimated that 25 million borrowers, representing 48% of all Americans with mortgage loans, will plunge underwater before home prices are expected to stabilize in the beginning of 2011.

"If our home-price forecast is correct, roughly one in two mortgage borrowers and one in three homeowners will owe more than their home is worth," said Karen Weaver, one of the researchers who authored the report. "That's a dramatic shift from the past several decades when housing was the foundation of middle class wealth."Full Story

Thursday, August 6, 2009

China Warns Inflation, Currency Threats


Aug. 6 (Bloomberg) -- China’s central bank warned that monetary easing by developed nations threatens to cause “severe” inflation and currency volatility.

“Failure to manage the degree of easing may lead to concerns about mid- and long-term inflation and exchange-rate stability,” the People’s Bank of China said in a quarterly monetary policy report, posted on its Web site yesterday.

China, the owner of $801.5 billion of Treasuries, pressed the U.S. at a summit in Washington last month for economic polices to protect the dollar’s value. The Bank of England is poised to end a five-month program of bond purchases, part of so-called “quantitative easing,” according to a Bloomberg News survey of firms bidding at government debt auctions.

“The discussion about quantitative easing and the reversal of it is going to capture the market’s attention for the rest of this year,” said Tai Hui, head of Southeast Asian economic research at Standard Chartered Plc in Singapore. “The fact that China is talking about it, again, is reflecting its concern about its holdings of U.S. Treasuries.”Full Story

Tuesday, August 4, 2009

More Layoffs : USPS may close 1,000 post offices


The U.S. Postal Service is studying roughly 1,000 of its 37,000 post offices for possible closure — the latest cost-cutting step from an agency scrambling to deal with a projected $7 billion deficit this year and larger losses in 2010.

The agency started its review earlier this year with approximately 3,200 post offices, and decided about 1,000 of them are “candidates for further review.” Postal managers say they will consider several factors in deciding whether to close those facilities: mail volume, proximity to other post offices and the potential savings in labor and utility costs.

Post offices generate about 71 percent of the Postal Service’s revenues each year; the rest comes through alternative channels, particularly the Postal Service’s Web site.
“Each year more and more postal transactions are now accomplished online,” said Jordan Small, the Postal Service’s acting vice president for network operations. “We consider this a success ... [but we need] to determine if there is, indeed, excess capacity in the network.”Full Story

Currency Swap , China Dollar exit statergy

Federal tax revenues plummeting


WASHINGTON (AP) -- The recession is starving the government of tax revenue, just as the president and Congress are piling a major expansion of health care and other programs on the nation's plate and struggling to find money to pay the tab.

The numbers could hardly be more stark: Tax receipts are on pace to drop 18 percent this year, the biggest single-year decline since the Great Depression, while the federal deficit balloons to a record $1.8 trillion.

Other figures in an Associated Press analysis underscore the recession's impact: Individual income tax receipts are down 22 percent from a year ago. Corporate income taxes are down 57 percent. Social Security tax receipts could drop for only the second time since 1940, and Medicare taxes are on pace to drop for only the third time ever.

The last time the government's revenues were this bleak, the year was 1932 in the midst of the Depression.

"Our tax system is already inadequate to support the promises our government has made," said Eugene Steuerle, a former Treasury Department official in the Reagan administration who is now vice president of the Peter G. Peterson Foundation.Full Story

Saturday, August 1, 2009

The Great Reflation Experiment

PBS: Breaking The Bank