Thursday, June 16, 2011

Currency USD-INR Analysis

Indian Rupee Longer Term Technicial Analysis:

The currency pair USD-INR is showing sign of bounce back after it has been in consolidation for almost year and half plus during that time we had a nice stock market bounce back after the intial crash in 2008.Ok now lets look at the chart for detail analysis



My moving average cloud statergy suggests that a decisive move above the blue line and closing above will be a bullish for this setup after having triple bottom and it implication will be:

1.Stock markets will take a hit
2.Exports sector will have nice profits
3.more FII will flow into market based on rising interest rates.

Hurdle that it needs to take out the

Resistance 1 : 46:10-46:25
Resistance 2 : 47:50-48


There is strong support around 43-44 area and its been holding for some time.Any break in the area will be flash smash in stock markets (but remember its only true based on moderate inflation numbers.If we enter into hyper inflationary mode then it will avalanche in globex and will eventually bring BSE/NSE with it).

The chart below suggests that breaking below the support draw in green rectangle will takes to previous cup bottom around 38-40 area.

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